The Irish "Yes" Vote

Needless to say, I am very disappointed by the result. Its surreal that I find myself on the same political page as Gerry Adams and Sinn Fein about this! Wonders never cease. How will this affect politics in the UK? Well, as predicted, Davey Boy is hedging his bets

http://blog.conservatives.com/index.php/2009/10/03/there-will-be-no-change-in-our-policy-on-europe/

from the above, I quote

“I want to make one thing clear: there will be no change in our policy on Europe and no new announcements at the Conference. There will be no change in Conservative policy as long as the Lisbon Treaty is still not in force. The Treaty has still not been ratified by the Czechs and the Poles. The Czech Prime Minister has said that the constitutional challenge before the Czech Constitutional Court could take 3-6 months to resolve.

I have said repeatedly that I want us to have a referendum. If the Treaty is not ratified in all Member States and not in force when the election is held, and if we are elected, then we will hold a referendum on it, we will name the date of the referendum in the election campaign, we will lead the campaign for a ‘No’ vote.

If the Treaty is ratified and in force in all Member States, we have repeatedly said we would not let matters rest there. But we have one policy at a time, and we will set out how we would proceed in those circumstances if, and only if, they happen.”

What does that mean? I have no idea. I think it means that he has given himself an out – the Lisbon Treaty will become law before Christmas if the final hurdles that the Czechs and Poles have placed in its path are overcome. Since May is the next General Election here, David will have 5 months of fait accompli to hide behind when he decides to do nothing at all. I fear that, since the full implications of the Lisbon Treaty are unlikely to be noticed by the British sheeple until one of our 40 vetos that are being removed becomes relevant, or the new EU Foreign Minister dictates UK foreign policy whether we like it or not, I predict that Cameron will decide that nothing needs to be done in the short term and will save the EU card for when he needs to divert attention from some cock up or other in his administration.

This means that UKIP might just pick up a few votes in the next General Election – all the main papers are quoting UKIP’s Nigel Farage’s response (suitably vitriolic but not actually that helpful). 80% of Tory voters are Eurosceptic according to recent polls – I know that those of you who vote Tory have reservations to some degree or other. How will you cast your vote next May though? Will you risk a 4th Labour term in power with the associated calamities that they will unleash upon our battered purses and society? Is UKIP enough of a threat to split the vote that much? Is there any realistic chance that UKIP will return enough MPs to force the Tories to act in concert with them in the commons? Or any MPs at all? Are the Tories so certain to win the next election that they will still see Labour out of power, relying on the centre, undecided, swing voters as well as the disillusioned social AND economic liberals fleeing Labour and Lib Dem ranks?

It is my opinion that the latter is the most likely – and I encourage all Tory voters who do not want an ever-so-slightly less left wing centrist party to take power next year to vote for UKIP. Again, here are the links to their domestic politcies to show that UKIP does have enough depth and substance to be a realistic alternative, not just a protest vote. Do not fear – Labour’s days are over, the Tories will get in, hopefully with a few of the 500 candidates being fielded by UKIP in the next election nearby to form a coalition with if the Tories do not get an absolute majority.

http://www.ukip.org/content/ukip-policies/1014-campaign-policies-euro-elections-2009

http://www.ukip.org/content/ukip-policies

Think about it seriously. Make this the election in which you consider which party's policies you agree with the most and give them your vote. Do not just, yet again, vote for those most likely to win who you disagree with the least.